What to take you, my Tesla

In the face of the unpredictable Tesla Navy and the Tesla Hydra, I do not intend to contribute to the building, but today it is a matter of course, in order to talk about a valuation, but sometimes it will be inexplicable Ignore the problem – in the valuation, first of all you have to know your valuation of the company, she in the end is Gesha.

I think I love the valuation. You can compare the valuation than the case, you have to pass through the mystery of clouds and mountains fog, any clues can not let go, and finally to reach the other side of the mystery. Just this kind of intellectual game of excitement – can not make money we first two said ah – has been able to let a person reluctant to leave, so drunk.

But some cases can not break the headless case, this time the valuation seems to be a desperate divination, for example, when you are facing this Tesla this kind of alienated Godzilla. Most people see Tesla’s current equity market value will generally say, lying groove, I Lancaster world view of the lower limit has been brush. She ride a red stock price so mercilessly hanging the hearts of countless investors, for seven years.

It is easy to say that Tesla is a bubble, but it is hard to understand the bubble. Many people say that Tesla is a bubble when the eyes are glancing at GM and Ford; this is also very natural, you a repairer, can not go to the three giants of the Hom? So when the market value of Tesla over the general crowd when the group tide blowing – you actually made the lakes of the anti-

Here the way the popular science, the stock market value does not mean that the value of large enterprises, corporate value should also consider the factors into the debt lever; in terms of business value, GM is still more than twice the Tesla. But also can be seen from the common life is how Biequ.

Tesla, General Motors, Ford’s equity market value comparison (Source: ycharts.com)

But my question is, Tesla is a repairer?

Yeah, what is Tesla? Engage in cars Engage in battery Engage in renewable energy Engage in automatic driving Engage in artificial intelligence … … or like some that their eyesight is particularly good to say: engage in feelings of the Engage in Ponzi’s fraud Engage in religious worship? … … or like some of the brain is particularly large buddy said: engage in rocket? Do you go to Mars? Engage in interstellar colonies Engage in a program to lead the whole human break through the big filter? (See: Fermi Paradox)

No more words, or the conclusion is certainly Tesla is a big cult.

But at least we have to recognize Tesla certainly not repairer, or at least the market certainly do not think she is a car, or I think this crazy world on the dosing.

Thinking is such a thing, ah, I will use a high-level black rhetoric, to show if you think Tesla is a car business while at the same time that her valuation is not a bubble, how ridiculous. We are not talking about sales income ah profit rate of these ah, talk about money on the vulgar, we are talking about human dreams; we just look at production, we assume that as long as Tesla dare to produce, then someone dares to buy; Do not make money, we assume that Tesla as long as the delivery even if he wins.

In 2016, Tesla produced cars 83922, delivered 76,230; in the same dimension of the world in 2016, GM sold more than 10 million vehicles, Ford sold 6.6 million vehicles.

We look at the actual delivery capacity of Tesla: 2013,242,220, 2014 31655, 2015 50658, 2016 76230; of course since the 2013 after Tesla delivery has never reached the target of the year, the target rate of 100%. These black history we do not say, even if Gigafactory rumbling production (expected maximum capacity of 35 GWh / year, about now the sum of the world’s production capacity), even if it can reach the Mask established 2018 delivery of 500,000, 2020 Delivery of one million of the swans of the wish – that is only 100 million, is only one-tenth of the current general sales.

But dry to one million and how easy it is.

Teasing us for a long time Model 3 will be opened in July, the millions of basic to rely on her to hold up the marketplace. But the annual production and sales of one million cars is what the concept. The best car in the history of mankind is Corolla of Toyota, which has taken 40 million units since 1966 and more than 50 years; and if the performance of the unit time, the sales champion should be Ford’s T-type Car, from 1908 to 1927 less than two decades time, T-car sold 16.5 million.

Look at the figure below, if Tesla wants to reach 1 million sales in 2020, then follow the T-car to create a miracle route to go is the game, she must create their own miracle, become more explosive than the T-car Twice the number of –well, human history first car.

Tesla and T-car (Source: Bloomberg)

And this is not even we talked about the exponential growth, which is … … twitching growth. Anyway, this level of growth in the history of mankind has not yet had the honor to witness.

Traditional car manufacturers can have the current capacity is because they accumulated over the years in the globalization of the division of labor in the establishment of large-scale manufacturing capacity, that is, the so-called global OEM channels and networks. This is at least the current Tesla does not have the conditions, nor is it Tesla’s competitive advantage; Tesla’s advantage lies in software (such as automatic driving) and services (such as surpercharger charging pile).

But even if there is a miracle of 100 million that happened, it is still only one-tenth of the current general sales; Audi 2016 sales of 1.8 million units, not to mention the profitability of Audi is much higher In the Model 3, Audi’s market value is not God ah.

So the face of this absurd everything, I can only this conclusion: First Model 3 must not be a car, it is in addition to a car other than the human language has not yet created a vocabulary can describe the product, such as iPhone, you can not say it is A cell phone. So I think Model 3 is not a car, it can be iCar.




Which is why the market can be Tesla’s equity value higher than GM, because people do not think Tesla and GM in the same industry; since it is not the same industry, the market will think that Tesla market value Super-general or lower than the general and how I do not care ah – who will be the market value of Jingdong over Vanke and angry?

If you think or subconsciously think Tesla is a car to the valuation, or even go short, it is very dangerous. My valuation mentor (meaning I recognize him, but others simply do not recognize me) Professor Aswath Damodaran had made this mistake. His old people as early as September 2013 gave the “car dealers” Tesla estimated value, the cash flow discount model in the various assumptions and parameters are used in the “auto industry” standards, the last estimate, Tesi Pull the intrinsic value of less than $ 70 per share.

But the fact that my most respectable Professor Damodaran is a modest and cautious, self-reflection of the people, he later admitted to the valuation at that time made a mistake, the Tesla as car dealers to estimate is not Appropriate; Tesla should be at least classified as a tech company (tech company), and she also has a different company does not have the huge energy X factor – Maske.

But is Tesla just a tech company? Of course, she has too many scientific and technological factors: new energy, automatic driving, software, hardware and service integration capabilities, and certainly there will be artificial intelligence; also recently Tesla overtaking GM caused by the hustle and bustle reminds me of the year, Netflix market value More than Blockbuster when we said she engaged in rented discs, in the CBS when she said she was dry media, in the twenty-first century when Fox said she made a movie. In fact, white is a mismatch with the industry, Netflix is ​​a technology gene rich traditional industry breakthrough. Netflix’s share price trend is also very good with Tesla.

Netflix, CBS, 21st Century Fox’s equity market value comparison (Source: ycharts.com)

Another example is Amazon, she must not be a retail company, she is a technology company.

But I have a view that Tesla is a tech company. Even if you are equipped with supercharging services; even if these are priceless high quality assets and quality technology, but you will eventually put these Technology and services to cash out, you still can not do without your Tesla, car.

Netflix does not shoot can live, she can buy copyright to engage in streaming; Amazon does not do retail can live, she can engage in clouds. However, Coca-Cola does not sell Coke can not live, McDonald’s do not sell hamburgers can not live, GM does not sell cars will not live. In fact, Gansha need technology, you dare say Coke and Hamburg there is no technology and services? But not the technology is the technology company, Tesla if you finally decided not to sell cars, can live? Sell ​​the battery

Many people compare Tesla to the next Apple, the Model 3 compared to the next iPhone, even if there are many similarities, but there is a business model in a different nature: all iPhone are written behind California (California design ), But we all know that Apple is not engaged in the production of hardware that dead workers live dirty, all foundry factory to dry; but Tesla is personally to produce, the current 100% Tesla – Including the Model 3 to be marketed – all produced by Tesla’s factory in California.

Some people may ask that what Tesla do not engage in foundry, especially now capacity is not enough but the demand for an explosion. The reason is simple, because the production of a car is far from complicated with the production of a computer or mobile phone, which live can not be foundry. Such as your foundry, and that quality control Zaban? Toyota this has been the ultimate quality management and metamorphosis of the company, but also from time to time by a fan of the recall door minutes to teach a man.

But even so all dirty to live their own, Tesla’s quality is often criticized; another maintenance channel is also a mess of chaos, repair a car and several months of things often see the newspaper. So some of the owners of Tesla will contain tears that: with a Tesla is really cool burst, until you out of the accident.

What kind of industry is that Tesla? Perhaps Tesla which industry is not, if you insist to give her an industry, then put her in the Tesla industry bar. Industry alone this one, no other shop. Just like music, she is the Internet industry? TV industry? movie industry? Sports industry Financial industry Potato chips industry No, she is the music industry.

That’s why I think the valuation for Tesla is a hugging black hole behavior, no industry no Peers how to do valuation? Even if the hard assessment, but also the probability is not predictive of the garbage. So my conclusion is Tesla is a valuation of the black hole, she rose to how high is not a thing.

I was a little bit of thought here. I always want to understand, obviously SolarCity is a super invincible big baggage, why Tesla carrying a trot up breath on the fifth floor is not strenuous?

Because she is a valuation black hole Well, when a valuation black hole absorbs a valuation burden, the burden naturally gone; so let alone SolarCity, Tesla is eating a bankrupt SunEdison, her valuation is not There will be any indigestion. A black hole that can not be valued + a burden that can be estimated = a black hole that can not be valued.

So the United States, a car chain dealer head said, Tesla is either a Ponzi scheme, or she will eventually succeed. I thought this TM is not nonsense. But when I am humble, deeply chewed this sentence, the fate of the treacherous meaning is creepy.