Two days ago, the central bank announced foreign currency assets data, by the end of September, the central bank short-term foreign currency short positions on hand, an increase of 16.4 billion US dollars to 45.3 billion US dollars.
Some people say that this shows that the yuan to depreciate in the future. But only possible, because the future derogatory or rise, depends on the specific circumstances.
However, another possibility is more realistic, that is, a long absence, the central bank of the RMB short of the Holocaust, at any time may be staged.
Holding the central bank of 3 trillion US dollars of foreign reserves, made clear his long-short position the latest direction, if there is no follow-up, then, is not really a lamb to be slaughtered?
1, the central bank may not be submissive to the Lord
The so-called central bank foreign currency local currency forward contracts and futures contracts short positions, is the central bank hand took a number of contracts, the provisions of a future point in time (agreed to 3 months to 1 year period), according to the agreed exchange rate to pay foreign currency, RMB.
In general, the foreign currency here is basically the dollar. In other words, the central bank short the next 3 months to 1 year between the dollar, do the range of the yuan.
Of course, the central bank’s foreign currency in the hands of the long-term air single, the basic are taken over from commercial banks there, and commercial banks in the long-term air single, it is more than a single long-term corporate disk, that is, part of the enterprise The future to see more foreign currency, bearish currency of the product.
If the central bank is submissive to the Lord, then this does give people the impression that the yuan to depreciate the future.
But no one dared so sure.
We remember that the central bank announced the long and short positions in the hands of large changes, the first time in February this year, holding hands of $ 28.9 billion in foreign currency alone (equivalent to more than a single RMB), then the market occurred many times on the yuan The Holocaust. This time, the central bank’s long and short positions on hand the second known for the outside world big change.
Perhaps the new slaughter will happen at any time. This is the dollar and the yuan such a huge amount of bullets for the central bank, easy to grasp.
Of course, the central bank needs to identify opportunities.
The recent few things that show this opportunity is being nurtured.
2, is very likely to be another good out
First, the United States last Friday’s positive data, hidden bad.
This point, I have talked about:
On Friday, the US Commerce Department released third-quarter GDP data. US quarterly GDP growth rate of 2.9% in the third quarter, better than expected, is expected to grow 2.6%, the former value increased by 1.4%.
This data looks good at first glance, with a strong political color that reflects the uniqueness of the Fed’s monetary policy: it is the need for real and politically needed data, In the election, the purpose of boosting Hillary.
Because the third quarter US GDP growth is good, the main one reason is that exports are good, more than expected more than 10% contribution. We look at the July to September of the dollar index, it is not difficult to understand that the average price of the three-month dollar index at around 95.6, relatively low. That is, the current US GDP growth improved, thanks to the weakening US dollar.
The September 28 start of this round of the dollar rebound, it is the weaker dollar on the pre-export effect of the follow-up response.
Another data released on the same day, on the other hand, corroborate this judgment: that is, in October the US consumer confidence index fell to 87.2, while in September was 91.2. It shows that residents’ confidence in the US economy will weaken as the dollar strengthens.
This GDP results, not the real recovery of the US economy, but on the basis of the weak dollar, but the dollar rebound will inevitably weaken the fourth quarter GDP expectations, which will inevitably affect the rate hike expectations.
Perhaps it is for this reason. The ultra-expected third-quarter GDP data came out, the dollar does not rise but fell, down about 0.6% the same day. Because it just shows that the weak US dollar to promote the US economic recovery, so even if the December rate hike, is also very likely to be another good out.
3, good news from Europe
Second, the euro zone data, but also to suppress the dollar’s rebound.
The euro zone announced third-quarter economic data, in line with expectations, especially the CPI moderate rise, which is the fifth consecutive month of gains. Showing the current euro-zone monetary easing is being shown.
On Friday, Germany’s CPI was 0.8% in October, the fifth rise since April, with one flat and above the 2015 high, with CPI showing an effective double bottom sign.
The euro zone and Germany’s CPI rose significantly out of the channel, meaning that the European Central Bank called the unrestricted loose, the probability is even lower. CPI continue to improve, then the euro area may soon be out of the negative interest rate range. Which will support the euro.
Which will restrain the dollar’s future rebound. The future, the euro against the dollar may continue to shock strength, which will also give the Chinese central bank’s violent massacre, creating opportunities.
4, the US election may fly black swan
More dramatic color, 8, the US general election, may make Trump upset. Because the FBI restarted the investigation of the Hillary mail door incident on the 10-day-long polling day.
Mail door event speculation has been a long time, however, Hillary team cleverly deal with, the basic has been through. Clinton’s strategy was to admit that there was a violation of this matter, but that it did not materially detract from the national interests of the United States. It was in everyone ‘s opinion, Hillary Clinton, the error harmless occasion, FBI to find new facts on the grounds to restart the investigation, but it is a very lethal thing.
In this extremely sensitive time, FBI decided to restart the “mail door” of the investigation, it at least two problems.
First, Hillary’s e-mail gate incident, there is likely to exist more serious than the current illegal acts, and may seriously affect the interests of the United States or the United States political rules, this effect is even subversive.
Second, the newly discovered evidence is extremely reliable and has a clear direction, so that the United States government departments to break the silence during the election practice.
If the US election because of this incident, so that Trump won the election, the US capital market will have a huge vibration.
Because this year, many large companies in the United States, in order to support the Democratic Party re-elected president, the past save, and future performance are released this year to get the stock market to create a good situation, once Trump was elected, the spontaneous maintenance of market stability Of the initiative, will disappear, the US stock market may crash.
This will greatly hamper the Fed’s rate hike strategy, it is naturally a good time to kill the yuan short.
5, only three noon hour
From the past action, the short slaughter of the yuan, the central bank means a lot, and choose the opportunity is good, so as to minimize the cost of ammunition.
In the key position, if you can break the market psychological inertia, shot is naturally worth it. And now there are many signs that China’s central bank put out the next cannon, the next out of the larger card, the butcher knife may have been raised, waiting for three noon moment.