In the first three months of 2017, all the people were talking about the house and feeling soaring house prices.
The world’s greatest investor Buffett and the most successful fund manager Peter Lynch said: never predict the stock market, never to predict the stock market. For real estate, can we apply the same thing?
If you must find the law of investment and finance, Peter Lynch’s “cocktail party” theory is fun, this theory is over the years Lynch at home cocktail party, listen to his last 10 people talk about the stock when summed up. “When the market falls after a period of time, no one expects it to rise again when people do not talk about the stock market.If someone came to ask me how to make a living, I will answer ‘try to buy a fund’. They will soon turn the topic to the upcoming election, or weather conditions and the like, and soon they will talk with a dentist next to the treatment of teeth “When a fund manager is reluctant to talk about the stock market, in Lynch’s view, the stock market is likely to turn for the better.
For the property market, Lynch’s approach can learn from? After all, in the past three months of 2017, the house is always young and even “quadruple” middle-aged eternal topic. Did not get on the bus of anxiety, rush around to raise funds, the election room showings, evil fill never encroach on the legal provisions. On the car regret not the beginning, while calculating their own fixed assets and more out of the millions, while regretting how did not buy more than a few sets, while also looked at their colleagues and friends, neighborhood neighbors, as if buying a house has been upgraded to Collective action, everyone should be in their own unique way to participate.
Firmly see more Ren Zhiqiang every appearance, or some of his talk about the property market hearsay evidence of the news on the network caused a sensation. Psychologist Wu Zhihong’s “giant baby country” is quietly off the shelf, the book written in the collective stay in infancy, and through the collective life to seek a sense of security. Only one child after graduation coincides with house prices rose, the initial rise or parents can afford, and now the rise, it is the two families together are powerless. Around the “North Guangshen” house, “giant baby” and his family into a very anxious, and thus derived from a series of moral and ethical issues. High prices and coincides with the imbalance between the size of the age of men and women, “Construction Bank” and “China Merchants Bank” family of sharp opposition in the robbery war wearing a bride price, dowry, premarital agreement, marriage and other multiple issues.
The so-called watch is not too big, can be “giant baby” their behavior logic is still thought-provoking. After the “3.17 New Deal”, Beijing has tens of thousands of “on-the-way”, that is, has been trading but not yet signed transactions, these transactions either face breach of contract, or pay millions or even millions of down payment, although the funds Difficult to raise, but the vast majority of buyers want to complete the transaction. First-line urban land supply increasingly scarce, and circulation in the community of the currency has been super-hair, the capital of the “water” will “North Guangshen” house molded into scarce priceless. If no one dares to bearish, after all, house prices rose for 30 years, and can be charged with their own income and then dig their parents to protect the cost of life, or people are puzzled.
The purchase of people who always buy up do not buy down, this investment psychology and stocks are somewhat similar, from 2015 to the whole people stocks, to 2017 the real estate speculators, people’s investment and financial behavior has been subjective psychology, and when the masses More and more tend to act in concert, commodity prices have been constantly strengthened, so that the people involved in the price is expected to be strengthened, and then evolved into a collective carnival.
Buy up do not buy or lose, “seeking field to ask” this rooted in the farming society of national nature is always in the collective unconscious amplification, into a similar sense of faith. In psychology this phenomenon is called “Adam and Eve effect”, also known as “forbidden fruit effect”, the more the purchase, prohibited objects, people more to get the hand. Which may be hidden inside a truth, that is, the house is indeed a rare purchase of goods, the future will have been scarce.
But still need to repeat here again Buffett and Peter Lynch’s words: never predict the market, never to predict the market.
Peer pressure decision
China’s stock market cattle short bear long, especially the number of several bull market is often in a year or two outbreak, a very short period of time investors fear, joy, surprise, regret, all kinds of emotions concentrated in a short time. Similar to the stock market, the real estate market is not the case.
Tsinghua graduates complained that the school district can not afford the post attracted snow-like response. If you look at the world’s most popular metropolis, London, New York, the core of the house is not a graduate school students can afford to pay. Able to own a property in Manhattan, a family or experience the accumulation of generations. The US per capita income is 8 times that of the US housing rate is only 60%, and now the real estate boom, the employment of the population salary can not keep up with house prices rose, the US housing ownership rate hit a 50-year low. Correspondingly, China’s real estate rate of 90%, first-tier cities of the housing rate is also three sets of houses at least two sets of their own.
Just a year or two years, the Chinese real estate market all of a sudden go through the development process of other countries for hundreds of years, and complacency over a hundred years, the Chinese people’s wealth has gone through several rounds of re-shuffle, Every time are thrilling. Today, this time is a rare history of the speed and depth of a wealth of diversion. When people are still frightened, the solidification of wealth, social stratification has been completed, and the rapid landing of housing prices is the fortune of the wall to build up the sign.
There are many occasional factors in the process of distribution of wealth in the role of young people, early years of birth, early marriage for several years, early years of children, or a career choice, a city choice, and any other life and work related to the decision, Some financial arrangements, you may buy a house for the ability or decision to have a fundamental impact, and then change the path of life. Those who are not timely “on the train” people, the same is by some accidental factors, so that step by step wrong step wrong. The same starting line of people, in just a few years the wealth of the distance quickly opened. Psychology, peer pressure, peers or colleagues, classmates and other acquaintances in the psychological pressure generated by each other, this time it is easy to pressure to the backward side, so that they do their best, recklessly jump on the Mercedes-Benz in the wealth express train.
And the stock is different is to buy the stock to pay and bear the risk of a small family within the scope of digestion, in the “house” faith, all digging parents and even relatives and relatives to feed their lives the practice of living have become confident , Do not match the relatives have been into the alternative. In the first-tier cities, prices are out of reach, the parents of the two sides sold the county idle house from the Qi Qi pay the distance, so relatives are also hard to apportion the down payment Of the amount of family conflicts broke out.
“Giant baby” who may be justified, after all, the supply of land in the big city tightening. But in the investment decision-making, the herd may not be a good thing, independent thinking is.
Buffett or a little boy when the small partner to sell Coke business. At that time the capacity of each bottle of Pepsi is 12 ounces, while Coca-Cola is only 6 ounces, but the price of two cola is the same. Most of the children are contented to drink soft drinks, only the small Buffett secretly numbered caps, to see which brand of soda to sell fast, so choose the best selling varieties.
Buffett’s partner, Charlie Munger, said that if a person automatically follows and observes the thought and action of the people around him to think and act, then he will be able to simplify some of the original complex behavior. And this practice is often effective. For example, if you want to see a grand game in a strange city, then the people walking along the street is the easiest way to go. Evolution to the human left such a shortcut to take the social tendency.
It is often expensive to find convenience. There are investment big brother had lamented, all the bill after asking people around, we all agree with the basic loss of money; if all against, it is certainly making money. Over the past few years, P2P and other platforms to die the size of the amount of money customers tens of thousands of people, many people are pulling relatives and friends go to the last investment into the final even the principal are not come back. In the stock market, the lack of independent research capacity of the retail business is often a victim of the psychological, “win two straight three losses,” the law of winning long-term dominated the retail “money bag.”
Now, QQ group, micro-credit group, microblogging group, friends circle, forum, APP community origin, has gathered the square was moved to the palm of your hand, convenient and quick communication closer to everyone’s distance, the views of the masses were enlarged. Where all investors gather, everyone will search for information that is consistent with their investment advice and will see all the messy information as valuable, which is more of a magnified psychological effect.
“The fact that there is no investment project is always good.” The market is changing rapidly, the business cycle has changed the value of the industry, and investment products need to be scrutinized often, “said John Tampon, the investment guru. If a particular industry or some kind of securities become popular among investors, the epidemic is often proved to be short-lived. And once the loss, may have no income for many years. So, do not expect those trends to lead you to the best investment opportunities.
For investors, the only thing that can be done is patience. This is a “tireless waiting waiting” art. Jason Livermore, author of the Memoirs of Stocks, says the trick is to buy and sell, but to wait. When the price is too high, buy and look forward to a more silly fool to take over, in fact, he may be the last pick up. However, the only thing that can be determined is that mankind will make the same mistake again and again.
Buy the house is not the case. Even if prices rose in full swing for decades, each time the outbreak of the transaction is often the stage high.
“North deep” prices skyrocketed, happy local residents. Can the people on the way out of the car is how the mood?
There is a young man in Xuzhou to Beijing to school, after graduation in 2010 to make the power of the whole family in Beijing Tiantongyuan bought a set of 88 square meters of the house, by 2015 Beijing haze day, he moved the idea of escape, when buying is 16 yuan / square meter, but at this time Tiantongyuan house almost no gains, the end of the 1.58 million yuan, unit price of 18,000 yuan / square meter sold. This is also the starting point of his regret, then the news of every room prices in Beijing are stimulating his nerves, his mind from the “a little uncomfortable” to “particularly uncomfortable”, and then “feel no love, painful flow The tears “.
Life is not if, if the Beijing housing prices continue to rise, I really do not know the escape from the “north wide” young man can get out of this psychological shadow. In fact, pushing people and people, there are buyers there are sellers, in a round of bulls in the middle of the way people get off is a minority. But the real estate is different from the stock market, trading commissions, fees and deed tax costs are expensive, the cost of negotiations, high transaction costs, it is difficult to come up with the car. For ordinary people, often a decision to determine the financial situation of your second half, this time it seems hasty decision, the loser is particularly important, because after a long time he had to face the financial situation and the former neighbors Constantly widening the embarrassment.
Can not get off after all the few people. In this real estate speculators who often 2 million into 2 billion of the times, it was also a basket of water empty. There is a frequent work around the people who work in Beijing in Beijing home buyers, after the transfer to Chongqing, Beijing’s house sold in Chongqing, the purchase of a larger house, but unfortunately the house in Chongqing is not price increases, work and then transferred to Shenzhen, when he can not afford to buy, had to buy Zhongshan. Now when he returned to work in Beijing, he initially bought a house where Wangjing’s house prices rose from 9,000 yuan a square meter to seven or eight million, no longer afford to buy.
Some people ridicule the most failed in this era of several investments, the most unfortunate is the sale of foreign investment in the sale of P2P, the most failed is the sale of stocks, won the wealth of wealth is selling business. Really can be described as the most important words to say three times, missed the “north of Guangshen” the house can be described as “a stumble and eternal hate”.
Financial commentator Niu knife once a day, singing empty property market, picking up the banner of the property market short, the core point of view is the soaring house prices and the resulting land finance will eventually make China’s economy to the predicament, and even lead to China’s economic collapse , So prices can not rise, house prices should fall. Mr. Niu almost every year to predict housing prices will fall in the second year, one insisted is 10 years. The opposite side of the chopper Ren Zhiqiang, it is the use of government land supply data to speak, to the real estate developers point of view, from the supply and demand of commercial housing prices forecast ups and downs. Because the annual forecast come to nothing, the chopper can be described as the annual Ta Kong, had been at home at hand, farther and farther away from their own, until the empty castle in the air.
Since the “letter chopper, live cattle shed”, house prices rose year after year, why do people believe that the knife is willing to “milk” Niu Dao as the rise of financial commentators and Ren Zhiqiang’s argument, it is the eve of China’s housing prices rose, the chopper that the Chinese housing prices contain a great bubble, the language is not surprising, it is the forefront of economics vocabulary and gorgeous rhetoric To the knife to bring a high popularity. From 2006 to 2009, A-share market experienced a century skyrocketed, global capitalism because the subprime mortgage crisis by the Sheng and the bubble burst the pain in the financial market with a huge lethality of transmission, to provide the collapse of the game The excellent soil.
After the crisis, at least the real estate market soon returned to life, or even too much, Niu Dao’s “fans” do not reflect on independent judgment? In fact, “cattle powder” who also with the passage of time and differentiation, after a cattle and bulls, the sound of the chopper is also limited, and experienced so many years also believe that the chopper, as it is a group of paranoid personality Of people, they can not afford to buy a house or do not want to pay for a house of life, so choose a kind of masturbation to talk about the faith.
Some people sharply analysis: Niu knife this person is actually scavengers, his “fans” basically in the bottom of society, they are not messy, but hope that the chopper is right, they are good against. This is the essence of the problem. Niu knife is also very clear this point, then stand up and grab a wave of eyeballs, and then earn these poor people’s money. These “fans” who could have their own efforts to sublimation, change the fate, but now missed the opportunity, had to spend in remorse.
Learn to be humble
Boao Forum for Asia, the domestic mainstream economists on the property market bubble to do a big bet on the support of housing bubble and no bubble is almost 10: 1, this atmosphere, the North University professor Yao Yang “people need to educate” Of the point of view, and said, “only let it fall several times, waist cut once, he knew the pain.”
Coincidentally, economist Ma Guangyuan more straightforward, in the face of the history of those repeated bubble disaster, the Chinese people really need a real price adjustment to learn humility.
30 years of reform and opening up the rapid economic growth, many people welcomed the flourishing, into the line is easy to accumulate wealth, “North Guangshen” residents are muddleheaded to sit on the real estate Express, wealth appreciation. If the stock market on several bursts of the bubble to the investors enough to teach, and even more families “once bitten by a snake for ten years afraid of rope”, can be around the big city speculators have never missed, From the inner ring to the outer ring, from the second ring to the six ring to the seven ring all the way to fry down, the pace of wealth appreciation has never been interrupted. Of course, these investors do not need awe, because there is no risk at all. For many people, since the real estate on the road, its entire career cycle are smooth, why fear?
Japan and Hong Kong, the two sides of the real estate bubble burst in the eyes of the obvious, but because too far away, it is difficult to empathy, speculators are still selective to avoid the lessons of others. When the Japanese real estate bubble burst, the recession of the chain reaction is the increase in unemployment, stop lending off the growing number of banks have closed down. A lot of people who buy a house bankruptcy, the house was back to be auctioned, the producers suddenly fell into the streets of the situation, home to death. In 1991-1996, the largest decline in house prices in the past few years, some poor psychological quality of the negative assets of the Japanese also choose to commit suicide, most of the “negative assets” of the Japanese either insist on repayment of loans, or choose to become a tramp. While the Japanese property prices have not recovered from the bubble burst that year.
In 1997, the real estate bubble burst in Hong Kong, and the price dropped to 70% in six years. More than 100,000 Hong Kong people become “negative assets” crowd, according to Hong Kong 2.4 million suites production, accounting for 5% of the total population, which includes the famous Jiang Yuheng and Wang Jie and so on. During this period, the suicide rate in Hong Kong increased significantly, the largest number of suicide killer this year happens to be the Hong Kong property market fell to the bottom of the time. Since then, the Hong Kong property market gradually recovered to pick up, burning the number of people began to reduce the number of suicide.
If the “north of Guangshen” property prices really as economists said to a “waist cut”, the prospects facing buyers may not only do a lifetime house slaves so simple, but the house did not, but also a lifetime debt.
Learn to humbly deal with investment and financial management, fear of the heart can not do nothing Hong Kong wave master Xu Yiguang has visited nearly 20 futures speculators as “speculative wisdom”, the futures market leader in speculation for a living, accumulated a huge fortune. Without exception, these big hands are abide by a discipline, the so-called “cautious to catch thousands of autumn cicadas, carefully driving years ship.” All the speculators have almost grown in the “once zero” experience, no matter how accurate they see the market, the success rate of how high, a charge of home speculation may make their own capital, no more capital opportunity. So the futures speculation, the most basic bottom line but not gambling, do not set their own risk, not profitable when the first stop a good stop.
Throughout the “stock god” Buffett’s investment, can be summed up by two words: focus, and awe. Between the two words, there are natural links, which is what Buffett wants to share with every young investor: focus on the details, and then find the law, and fear and respect them. In Buffett’s six most important investment advice, the first paragraph of the investment principle is not to change the money, the first two principles is not to forget the first one principle.
Buffett warned his followers, always remember that there is a sure investment, not because of chasing the return and forget the risk. Although it is called “stock god”, but Buffett never himself to God, because “God will not fail”, but he had missed. But what is important is that he is afraid of every failure, “the law is God’s hint, not every time you can thoroughly understand”, which is the capital market is wonderful and unable to stop.
Can be in the “north Guangshen” producer, that is, there are house where you can not see the slightest humility and respect. March 17, Beijing issued a new purchase policy, the purchase of two suites will “recognize the room and credit”, and the down payment ratio increased to 60%. Here the so-called two suites is not necessarily in Beijing’s two suites, had to lend money, and whether that loan is paid off, and whether the house is still under the name of the transaction are counted as two sets, The amount of down payment more than a million to millions of dollars. Many families are not real estate, but to settle down for their children to school, but was “accidental injury.” It is reported that in the face of millions of dollars of funding gap, the same huge amount of liquidated damages, these in the way back can not retire, housewives were tears.
The face of 1 million more than the sigh of the family, there are individual Beijing local people to give “Beijing does not welcome you ah” “house prices are you fried high” “do not go back home” and “this money is also immigrants The bottom “and so on and so on the sarcasm and ridicule. Philistine’s face, for helping them to achieve the value of foreign immigrants, not only a little thanks to all, put it is self-righteous stink.