China has two times the opportunity to enter the modernization of the great, but unfortunately interrupted by Japan

The time dimension opened, we can easily see: the general sense of the fourteen years of war, in fact, only more than 100 years of suffering history of the most profound section of the period.

Modern Japan’s invasion of China, the earliest began in the Sino-Japanese War.

Before the outbreak of the war, China in the southeast coastal provinces have engaged in more than 30 years of Westernization movement, at the same time, the Japanese Meiji Restoration has been twenty-six years.

To “money” in terms of. China’s GDP still accounts for 11% of the world’s total in 1900, while Japan accounted for only 2.6% over the same period. (Madison’s “World Economic Millennium”), after the defeat of the Sino-Japanese War, At that time the yen up to 365 million, while the same year the Japanese national economy was only 215 million yen (Han Yuhai “the world: inclusive of four Yi of China”). It can be said that China wins Japan.

To “industry” in terms of. The two countries began to industrialize the time roughly the same; the two specific operations are similar, are the Western industrial countries, are to set up Western and modern industrial system-based; weapons and equipment, the two countries there is no qualitative difference. Can be said that China and Japan generally tied into a tie.

It is clear that the first battle of modern China and Japan, China’s defeat can only be said to be lost in the “potential” on.

The background of the Westernization Movement is that the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom movement, which began in 1851, greatly shook the rule of the Qing dynasty, and the central government’s ability to control the localities began to decline significantly.

In fact, the political elite of the southeastern provinces, while taking the modern industrial base, the political game between the central government and the local government is becoming more and more intense.

In this way, in the morning before the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War, the local factions between each other, the central and local real power between each other fear.

A quite ambitious modern movement, but it is brought about by the further increase in internal friction.

In addition, the first industrial revolution of mankind is also known as the “coal revolution”, coal and iron is the most fundamental material basis of modern industry.

And for political reasons, during the Westernization Movement, China’s industrial settings were mostly located in the southeast coastal areas, where it was both coal and iron. This unreasonable industrial layout, and further reduce the cost of industrial facilities.

Moreover, the sisters of the southeastern provinces in this process will be a lot of wealth in the coastal areas, and the face of the Western powers, the region’s security problems are always difficult to protect, which is bound to lead these people in the face of Western countries It is difficult to have much emboldened.

A Westernization movement, get their wealth, create its industry, but finally not strong potential.

At the same time, Japan in the Meiji Restoration process not only ended the shogunate rule, more importantly, through the “reeducation” campaign, greatly weakened the “name” and other local forces on the local control.

At that time, Japan, the police, culture, education, taxation and other government agencies, through the “police station” which was Japan’s unique form of institutions, the government’s influence directly to the grassroots level.

Thus, it established a relatively high degree of unity of the national system.

During the same period, the two countries within a sub-one, the final result can be imagined – the Sino-Japanese War in the Sino-Japanese War is not actually faced with “China”, but a specific faction and even individuals.

Defeat to China to bring the greatest impact, not the loss of wealth on the compensation, but a war lost Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula two geopolitical strategy to red. Especially the Korean Peninsula’s hand, making Beijing as a political center in the sea, land two directions are lost strategic barriers.

Beijing is located in the court, even their own security are difficult to protect, naturally it is difficult to have any authority at all.

At this point, China’s surface for the centralization, but in fact slide to the feudal feudal.

1900 “Gengzi difficult”, there is the famous “southeast of each other” – in the capital suffered foreign invaders, the southeast provinces alone with people to make peace.

At this point, the centralization of the Qing court has actually declared a complete collapse, eleven years later (1911), Xuan Tong abdication, the end of the monarchy, this series of events has long been a foregone conclusion, the only suspense is nothing more than time sooner or later.

After the demise of the Qing Dynasty, to replace her country did not let China’s social structure or “potential” to produce a fundamental change.

The national government from the historical origin, the main body from the Qing Dynasty southeast gentry group.

Although the regime change, but the big social framework without any fundamental change, China is still a “big feudal, small despotism” state.

The so-called “feudal”, that is, the Kuomintang government in Nanjing, although theoretically is the central government of China, but in fact it can control the region is nothing more than the four families master Jiangsu and Zhejiang area, its interests are limited to this Small pieces.




The vast majority of northern China and the more south of the Yunnan-Guizhou, Guangdong and Guangxi, are in a listening tone does not listen to the state.

The so-called “little autocratic”, refers to the various levels of local forces in their own sites have almost the power of the emperor.

This was particularly evident in the vast rural areas of China at that time, and the administrative power of the state could only extend to the county level at best. The Chinese rural areas, which carried the bulk of the population at that time, were then extravagens and were completely controlled by local gentry forces, with the participation of the church.

Which will further produce the de facto “tax system” and “Xu official”, that is, the government actually gave up the management of the grassroots, the rural population “hosting” to the local forces.

In this case, China’s economy has entered a state of an endless cycle.

State power is neither in the hands of ordinary people, nor in the hands of the central government, but by the gentry class monopoly.

There is a “right” is bound to “benefit”, this way, the social wealth will be monopolized by this class, from the paper figures, is still considered rich, but the state money, the bottom of the same people no money.

China has only two ways: either passive beaten, or work hard.

Can be two road at the time but can not go: end to fight to fight compensation, who out? People out of the people.

Tax burden more than the affordability of the people, and then is rebellion; hard work, engage in industry, strong army, still need money, who out? Or the people out, the people were pressed can not stand, and finally rebellion.

In other words, no matter which way to choose, and ultimately a dead end.

The Qing Dynasty so, to the Republic of China is still the case.

Because of the existence of this dead cycle, China missed two industrial revolutions.

“Potential” is so, then “industry” it? 1927 to 1937 on the eve of the outbreak of the anti-Japanese war, the Republic of China had a relatively stable period, because the period of economic data is quite good, so there are “golden years” argument.

During that period, the economy of the eastern coastal areas was indeed very prosperous, but this “prosperity” refers to finance, humanities and part of the light industry – such as flour mill, reeling factory. Really can support a war of economic elements, at the time really do not fall back.

In the hardware, when China’s steel, coal and military industry, its production capacity and quality is still not the Westernization Movement of the Qing Dynasty. At that time, China only two places more developed heavy industry, one is occupied by the three northeastern provinces of Japan, the other is Yan Xishan control of Shanxi. These two places are clearly and “golden years” without any relevance.

In the software, at that time the Chinese population’s illiteracy rate of more than 80%, and in a handful of intellectuals, when more than 85% of the university disciplines are art, literature, history, humanities, the remaining 15% , But also to get rid of the economy, the legal profession, machine, electricity, and other engineering professionals are few.

Fourteen years during the war of resistance against Japan, a large number of young intellectuals came to Yan’an, the cruel reality is that these young blood can write articles, compiled drama inspiring people are numerous, you can find a few will be prepared explosives, Talent, but very difficult.

And this is the most realistic portrayal of the Chinese economy at that time – wealth without industry, there is no power industry, light and no weight, gold and no steel … …

In addition, since the late Qing Dynasty began to form the Chinese economy East West light unreasonable layout, became another fatal place in China.

Japan has claimed to “three months to destroy China”, if it is from the collapse of China’s economic base, this argument is actually not really exaggerated.

During the period of the Republic of China, all the economic achievements were concentrated in several major cities along the eastern coast, from the “July 7 Incident” in 1937 to the fall of Guangzhou in October 1938, and the eastern coastal cities were lost in 15 months. The essence of the economy also will be lost.

There is such a saying: China has twice into the modernization of the opportunity, once the Qing Dynasty Westernization Movement, once the Republic of “Golden Decade”, two opportunities have been interrupted by the Japanese.

Can in turn think about whether we should also reflect on why the two economic jump, so can not stand the test?

To sum up, China experienced hundreds of years of disaster, from a technical point of view, give us the lesson is:

If the country and the nation’s long-term interests as the focus, the real economy, especially heavy, chemical industry, technology industry, it should be living in the economic strategy of the core position;

The fundamental operation of the economy, it is people, both the quality of qualified labor, but also a fair and reasonable social distribution mechanism.